In this blog post
I will be discussing why China is not as large of a threat to United State’s
global power as we think it is. In this article published in Forbes magazine in
June of 2014, it creates a clear argument as to why China will not be a large of
a threat to us, as we think it will become. One of the most important points
this article makes is the scale of financial interdependence.
China holds around
$1.2 trillion of US debt. While this is a shocking number at first, it really
is not entirely negative. China holding this debt can be a good thing for the
United States. It harbors healthy trade relations, and ensures that the two
countries will be intertwined with one another for years to come. If we thought
China posed such a large threat, they would not hold any of our debt. China
would not want anything terrible to happen to the United States financially,
because that would mean they would have to bail us out. This does not mean they
have more power over us in any sense, just that they have interest in the
United States’ success.
Another reason why
China does not pose a threat to the United States’ power is the scale of our
global influence. The United States has played the part of a global watchdog
for most of its existence. Our involvement in international politics, and the
direct influence on politics in other states shows how much influence we have
in the world. While China is a growing world power, they cannot compare to the
red, white, and blue influence the United States has.
My final reason of
why China does not pose a very large threat to the United States is the size of
their military. They are working on a mission to send someone to the Moon
today. We accomplished that feat in 1969, over forty years ago. They might have
more people in their military, but we out power them. If the United States, our
one of our allies were attacked tomorrow, we could have one of our warships
there in less than 48 hours. China does not have that capability to respond
that quickly and efficiently to an attack. Another aspect is nuclear weapons.
While any country that posses nuclear weapons poses some form of threat to the
international community, China just does not have the same amount as the United
States. Our number is in the thousands, theirs is in the hundreds.
While China is certainly a growing international powerhouse, it is not as large of a threat to the United States' power as we make it out to be.
I don't think that China is completely irrelevant to the U.S. because China's influence is reaching across the world. China is influencing areas in Latin America and Africa that usually were influenced by the U.S. I think the increase in GDP and economy will lead to an increase in military power.
ReplyDeleteSo, I somewhat agree with you and somewhat disagree. I don't think China is going to overtake the U.S. for two reasons: increasing wage rates and their Communist practices. Wage rates in China have been increasing for the past several years now, and therefore, outsourcing jobs have moved from China to other countries like Vietnam. Also, we can see continued pro-democracy riots like those in Hong Kong last month. This can lead to growing instability in their government. I do not agree with you because $1.2 trillion of debt held by our biggest competition is not ideal. That is 10% of our national debt right there. Some debt is good debt, but this is not that case. We will always have good trade relations with them as long as nothing dramatic changes. However, China has great leverage on us because of this. If they decide to sell all of our debt, interest rates can skyrocket.
ReplyDeleteKnowing that 10% of US's national debt is in the hands of China is alarming. Like Sam said, it's alarming because there is the potential to be deviant with that upper hand. China is a country we should worry about in the debt regard; however, China is not that comparable to the US's accomplishments in power, influence, and technology. The United States will maintain it's over advantage because our government tends to be more stable that China's. The worrying shouldn't necessarily stop, but it shouldn't be acknowledged as a severe threat to our safety.
ReplyDeleteGood thread guys. While it is somewhat concerning that China holds so much US debt, I still tend to think that overall the relationship is still asymmetric in the US's favor. We could find other people to finance our debt (or our exchange rates would just go down in order to reduce our trade deficit), but I am not sure what China would do without access to the huge US market. Also, I think it will be interesting to see what happens politically when China's vast middle class decides they no longer like the communist party. Whether this ends up being a smooth or not-so-smooth transition will very much influence the degree to which China becomes a true rival to the US.
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